Pacquiao will lose to Mayweather: ANALYSIS

                                                       

By MORTZ C. ORTIGOZA

Many boxing aficionados predicted that Filipino boxing icon Manny Pacquiao’s haymakers would dominate Welterweight pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather, Jr. on May 2 (U.S dateline) mega tussle of the century.

Since a boxer is as good as his last six fights, let’s dissect if Pacquiao whirling dervish southpaw attack has still the superiority or pop to deck out Mayweather.

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When Pacquiao fought the “Walking Punching Bag” Brandon Rios and the “Run Away Bride”, er, Boxer Cris Algieri compobox bared Pacquiao unleashes a total punch rates of 790 for Rios and 669 for Algieri in the entire 12 Rounds.

In these two lopsided match ups, Pacquiao looks superb as based on his total punches  just like during those exploding years where he TKO’d (technical knocked out) and KO’d (knocked out) the bigger but dehydrated or struggling in weight Oscar dela Hoya, Antonio Margarito, and Miguel Cotto.

When Manny however fought Juan Manuel Marquez in 2011 and 2012, he unleashes only a total punch of 578

and 256 (before he was knocked out cold at the 6th Round) or an average punches of 48 and 42 per round on their 2011 and 2013  tussles, respectively.

Why the bone lazy punches from the Filipino to the Mexican compared to his bunches of punches on Rios and Algieri?

My Answer: Because aside from their being a ploughing punching bag and Runaway Bride, er, Pug, Marquez superb counter punching skills deterred Pacquiao to whimsically shoot his punches.

He became tentative if not cautious because he became vulnerable to the 1-2 or 1-2-3 of the Mexican every time he dropped a jab or a straight.

The Mexican fought intelligently by exploiting the weaknesses of the predictable style of the Filipino

 (Pacquiao’s right jabs then plunge his chin or set his legs for inertia to trigger his left power punch) by just turning clockwise to avoid the Filipino’s left power punch.

The last time I saw Pacquiao set his predictable left power punch by feinting first two supposed right jabs were in the 6^th round of their 2013 match. Marquez made him pay for that blunder as Pacquiao allowed an opening of his chin as a knocked out target of the Mexican looping right punch.

Thanks to his chopping of woods or thanks to controversial conditioning coach Angel "Momo"Heredia?

Pssst, I heard Mayweather, for the first time, chops woods too!

  

          My thesis why Pacquiao will lose to Mayweather by citing Rios, Algieri, and Marquez

First, Rios, Algieri, and Marquez 3 and 4 matches were part of Pacquaio’s last six fights. They said a boxer is as good as his latest matches.

Second, Rios and Algieri are not like Mayweather in terms of boxing I.Q and skills. They are relegated between Vaishya and Shudra while Floyd is a Brahmin if compared to the Indian Caste System we learned in school. If you are a tricycle driver or a plumber of Malabanan Poso Negro who only finished Grade 5 but still read this article, Rios, Algieri, and Marquez can be likened to students of the elite University of the Philippines. While Marquez was a true UPiyan studious student, Rios or Algieri could either be working in the UPi-an ng tansan near U.P or nagbebenta (selling) ng ice water sa loob ng U.P.

Third, although schooled and even knocked down by Mayweather in their September 2009 ho-hum fight, Marquez and Mayweather have similar style in the ring: That being a C-O-U-N-T-E-R  P-U-N-C-H-E-R!

The difference however between Mayweather and Marquez is Floyd is three times better than the Mexican in the scarce counter punching industry (Could not yet get my drift here? Watch the Mayweather-Marquez lopsided fight at YouTube to appreciate what I'm arguing here on the counter-punch and escape and evasion techniques of the loquacious, ostentatious, and boastful American).

 Aside from being a maestro on these ring guile's, his long jabs, his inimitable feint that allows his punches to vigorously hit behind the ears of the opponents (watch his Robert Guerrero and Cotto’s fights) despite their gloves covering their heads, masterful weaving and bobbling, and the ballyhooed shoulder roll armed with a cocked right and left punch uppercuts. These arsenals of the still fresher American (47 mostly stick- and- run matches) would be too much for Pacquiao ( 57 ring wars and have you heard about wear-and-tear?) who could no longer KO an opponent since he TKO’d Cotto  six years ago.

Without that KO, Pacquiao lost his comparative advantage in a marquee fight just like what is going in May 2.

 Mayweather's excellent skills made him not only as boxing virtuoso but as the richest sports man of the world since modern boxing was invented in 1867.

(You can read my selected columns at http://mortzortigoza.blogspot.com and articles at Pangasinan News Aro. You can send comments too at totomortz@yahoo.com)